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Week 10 NFL Picks

November 12, 2011 Leave a comment

 

I'm channeling my inner Charlie Hustle with this week's picks

This for entertainment purposes only. Take my advice at your own risk as this writer does not have a great track record picking NFL games against the spread.

Note: I missed the Thursday night game this week.

Last Week 6-8

Season 50-59-5

5-star 5-3

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals: The Steelers defense typically gives veteran quarterbacks problems. This week they face Andy Dalton for the first time. This one shouldn’t be a blowout, but the Steelers should be able to bounce back from last week’s last minute debacle to get back into the win column. The Bengals should lose by a touchdown in only their fourth game against an opponent with a winning record going into this week.

*****Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Denver Broncos: This line has a Tebow-fever feel to it. There’s no way this line would have been under 7, if not 10, if these two teams had met just last week. The Broncos looked solid last week against the Raiders and the Chiefs tanked against the formerly winless Dolphins. But the NFL changes, sometimes dramatically, from week to week and this matchup will illustrate this fact. The Chiefs should win by double digits at home on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Indianapolis Colts: The good news is that practically nobody will be able to watch this game. And why would you want to? Since picking against the Colts has been so successful, there’s no reason to change this week.

Buffalo Bills +5.5 at Dallas Cowboys: The Bills might not win, but the Jason Garrett led Cowboys will revert back to the team that played 11 consecutive games decided by 4 points or less. The Cowboys continue to be an enigma; failing to develop any sort of consistency from game to game. They can look like a potential division champion and then look like the team that picked in the top 10 in April. This matchup is essentially a coin-flip, which means take the 5 1/2 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Houston Texans: Are the Texans good enough to be favored on the road against a team that doesn’t have a losing record? The Bucs made the quintessential desperation play this week when they claimed Albert Haynesworth on waivers. But with Gerald McCoy out for the season again, any fat body between the guards should help defensively. Far from a sure thing, the Bucs are the pick with the Texans due for a road loss.

Tennessee Titans +3.5 at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have two wins and are favored by more than a field goal? Sorry, can’t buy into that yet. Take the points and you win if a field goal decides this one.

Washington Redskins +3.5 at Miami Dolphins: Hmmm. The Fins are favored? This pick is being made in anticipation of Rex Grossman playing QB for the Skins. If not, then get the clock started on the Shanahans’ future in DC.

Atlanta Falcons PK vs. New Orleans Saints: Everybody is sleeping on the Falcons. They’re not a glamorous, “look at me” type of team. Instead they are disciplined typically fundamentally sound. These traits should help them if Drew Brees gets careless with the football 2 or 3 times. Take the Falcons in the Georgia Dome.

Detroit Lions +3 at Chicago Bears: The short week, combined with their impressive performance against the overrated Eagles on Monday night should affect the Bears enough in this one. While Jay Cutler was able to play really well on Monday, Suh and company will have him making the typical happy feet mistakes that we’ve come to expect from Cutler.

St. Louis Rams +3 at Cleveland Browns: Nobody is talking about the Browns for a chance at a top pick in next year’s draft, but they’ll be in the hunt. If the Browns schedule wasn’t so bad, this team would be similar to the Rams record. Take the field goal and pick against the Browns until their rookie coach and questionable quarterback prove that they’re NFL-worthy.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Philadelphia Eagles: The vastly overrated Eagles will continue to lose their followers’ money as they will only win this one by a touchdown or less. The Eagles are viewed as the team that demolished an inconsistent Cowboys team on Sunday night, not the team that’s 2-5 every other week. This line is out of whack as a result of the hype and perception, not reality.

Seattle Seahawks +7 vs. Baltimore Ravens: I can’t stand the Seahawks right now, but the Ravens play so much to the level of their opponents that they can’t be trusted to cover a touchdown line.

New York Giants +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers: The Giants are coming off of a huge win last week in Foxborough, but they’ve got enough of the big game experience to keep from dropping off this week. The 49ers are good, but they’re partially a product of playing in the worst division in the NFL. The Giants are the pick with a chance to cover with a field goal loss.

New England Patriots +2 at New York Jets: Neither of these teams is playing up to their potential this season. If the Jets lose, they fall a game behind the Pats, but will have lost both matchups and, thus, the tiebreaker in the standings. The Pats haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 2002. They are also 9-3 in their past 12 games when they are the underdog. While Rex Ryan has had success against Bill Belichick, BB gets the nod in this must-win game for both teams.

Minnesota Vikings +13 at Green Bay Packers: Everybody has to be on the Packers this week, right? That’s the only reason to like the Vikings. Well, that and the fact that it’s a national TV game and teams tend to play 60 minutes in those games, even if they’re not in a position to win (unless they’re the Cowboys in late October). Take the Vikings hoping they have enough pride to keep the score within two touchdowns.

Week 9 NFL Picks

So you're saying I have a chance...

This for entertainment purposes only. Take my advice at your own risk as this writer does not have a great track record picking NFL games against the spread.

Last Week 8-4-1

Season 44-51-5

5-star 5-2

Atlanta Falcons -7 at Indianapolis Colts: I’ve found my groove. I unrelentingly pick against the hapless Colts on a weekly basis and its working. No changes here as Michael Turner should have a big game.

New Orleans Saints -8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs aren’t the same team this year as they were a year ago and it seems like they haven’t been able to adapt to their newfound expectations. The Saints play much better on the speedy Superdome surface than they do elsewhere and last week’s collapse against the Rams should have them completely focused on redemption this week. Look for the Saints to get out to an early lead with a big first quarter from Drew Brees and for their defense to force Josh Freeman into predictable passing situations with his damaged right thumb.

Cleveland Browns +10.5 at Houston Texans: The Browns haven’t been playing well recently, but they do get the always inconsistent Texans AND they start with 10 1/2? The Peyton Hillis mess should be in the rearview mirror for a week or two anyway and Colt McCoy will get a chance to excel against a substandard pass defense. The key to this game will be the Browns run defense against Arian Foster. If they can slow Foster to under 100 yards, the Browns should be able to keep this one close enough.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. New York Jets: The Bills have been great at home and the Jets haven’t shown that they can consistently play well against the good teams in the league. Since the Jets corners are great, the Bills will pick on the Jets underperforming front seven with short to intermediate passes and a steady running game focused on controlling the clock. The Jets will have problems getting the Bills offense off of the field and that’s what will lead to another Bills victory.

Miami Dolphins +4 at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are on fire and the Dolphins stink, right? The Chiefs are coming off a short week after a big win over the hated Chargers and haven’t had a clunker since week two. The Dolphins seem to lose every which way possible, but it’s always close. This game should be decided by a field goal.

Washington Redskins +5 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Here’s another matchup with teams heading in different directions. The Redskins and Mike Shanahan were shutout last week in Toronto and the 49ers are rolling at 6-1. It’s inconceivable that the lowly Skins can beat the Niners. But they don’t have to. This should be a close game as the Redskins defense will keep it that way. The key will be the QB play for the Skins as that will determine whether they win or lose a close one.

*****Dallas Cowboys -11 vs. Seattle Seahawks: The Cowboys looked awful last week, but they’re better than that. The Seahawks can’t run the ball and don’t have the team speed that the Eagles have. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys defense dominates the undermanned Seahawks offense. This should be closer to the Rams game than the Eagles game for the ‘Boys.

Oakland Raiders -7 vs. Denver Broncos: Look for a much better performance out of Carson Palmer, even if Darren McFadden is out. The Broncos are just bad and it’s going to take more than a miraculous performance from Tim Tebow to win this one.

Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: This one is a coin flip that feels like a Titans win by a field goal. Look for an improved Chris Johnson, but probably not that good. He’ll go for at least 80 yards.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 vs. St. Louis Rams: This is a miserable matchup. Heads are Cards, tails are Rams. Heads. Take the Cards.

New York Giants +9 at New England Patriots: The Pats should win and probably will, but they are still an extremely flawed team, especially on defense. Eli Manning should have a good game and keep this one in the cover range.

San Diego Chargers +5.5 vs. Green Bay Packers: The Packers have looked spectacular all season and the Chargers are coming off a self-destructing defeat on Monday night. Look for a bounce back performance from Philip Rivers and the Chargers against the mediocre Packers pass defense and they will upset the Packers outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens: This will probably be decided by a field goal, but if it isn’t, the Steelers could win by a few touchdowns if Joe Flacco continues to struggle. If the Steelers can stop Ray Rice, they shouldn’t have a problem in this one.

Chicago Bears +7.5 at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles bandwagon is loading up again. But they aren’t more than a touchdown better than the Bears and certainly won’t run the ball against Brian Urlacher and company like they did last week against the Cowboys. Look for a lower scoring game and for the Bears to rough up Michael Vick enough to knock him out for at least a series. Longer than that and they should win outright.